I'll be the first to admit that I was not up to speed on the background of the Ukraine-Russia-US-NATO conflict. I think that even those who are or were up to speed were shocked by Putin's full-scale invasion, That is understandable, given how many times the "intelligence community" has screamed that the sky is falling. If it wasn't the Russian nukes in the Cold War, it was the constant threat from what George W. used to so folksily call "those terrorist folks."
So, many thanks to reader Valerie for sharing this excellent lecture by political science and foreign policy scholar John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Not only is it well worth an hour or so of your time, it should also serve as an antidote to all the jingoism and fear-mongering propaganda bombarding us from the mainstream media, or rather the five corporate entities which control more than 90 percent of everything we see, hear, and read.
6 comments:
A Ukraine/NATO Tar-baby
"The Tar-Baby is a doll made of tar and turpentine used by the villainous Br'er Fox to entrap Br'er Rabbit.The more that Br'er Rabbit fights the Tar-Baby, the more entangled he becomes."
Thanks for posting the link to this lecture. It's excellent. I watched it earlier this month but I'm watching it again. I've actually been looking for it online the past few days because it's the best explanation of how we've arrived at this critical moment we're in.
Hard to know what direction this conflict will take. Looks like the west is waging an economic war against Russia. What could go wrong with that, huh?
"shocked by Putin's full-scale invasion"
Biden predicted an attack, for weeks before it happened.
Apparently those who heard him expected only some limited border action, against which the US economic sanctions would be massive response.
They got instead a massive attack, against which the sanctions did not seem like much at all. So those have been pushed to unexpected extremes.
Now we have talk of nuclear weapons, for the first time in a very long time. Cuban Missile Crisis redux.
Will we finesse that, or once again call their "bluff?"
So far, they have not been bluffing.
It is time to get serious, not to play domestic politics with frequent reference to Trump.
This is a great video, and I entirely agree with near every word.
Predictive power is one way to prove a theory, in physics, in politics, in many things. This talk was near six years ago. What happened in the last six years is what his theory predicts. His explanation therefore is "proven" by subsequent events, in one of the major ways any theory can be tested.
Caveat: The EU is 60% larger in population than the US in the same land area, and has a larger GDP. The European region as a whole is over twice the population of the US, in near twice the land area, and a total regional GDP far ahead of the US, or anything China is likely to reach for a couple of decades. Thus, Europe will continue to be important to the US, even as China (and India) become much more important than they were.
Britain before WW1 felt forced by Germany to prioritize its European interests, and so to compromise to cover its back, with the US in the Great Rapprochement, and likewise a treaty with Japan to cover in Asia. However, those areas remained important. Britain was fortunate to be able to find compromises it could live with, though some cost more than they entirely liked, and they abandoned the arrangement with Japan as soon as they could.
Does the US have the same option to find rapprochement or at least a livable temporary deal with Russia in Europe? This video makes clear the US is not even trying, and needs to try.
However, is it even possible?
The video also understates the degree to which Europe remains important as a vulnerability behind the back of the US as it pivots to China. Yes, China will be of overwhelming importance, but Europe will remain of great importance. The more the US must pivot, the more important Europe's power becomes, because it is at the back of the pivot.
This video is six years old. Yet it could be 2022. The part of the video that resonated with me was the Western democracies leading the Ukraine down the Primrose Path. The U.S. has always been big on pushing citizens to overthrow their "oppressors" without any skin in the game. I feel really sorry for the Ukrainian people.
Valerie – I was gratified to see your posting of John Mearsheimer’s presentation. I’ve been an admirer of Professor Mearsheimer since at least that time, along with now deceased Professor Emeritus (NYU/Princeton) Stephen Cohen. I’ve followed the lead-up to this U.S.-created Ukraine debacle since the 2014 coup - and now list several links that I’ve found informative (Karen permitting). The last link re George Kennan’s views from 1997 on NATO expansion – brings near tears:
“Why, with all the hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the Cold War, should East-West relations become centered on the question of who would be allied with whom and, by implication, against whom in some fanciful, totally unforeseeable and most improbable future military conflict?”
“[B]luntly stated…expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking … ”
02/25/22 Consortium News: Watch CN Live: Russia Hits Back.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/25/watch-cn-live-russia-hits-back/
02/24/22 Consortium: Joe Lauria - Why Putin Went to War.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/24/what-putin-says-are-the-causes-aims-of-russias-military-action/
02/24/22: ScheerPost – Blake Fleetwood: ‘Not One Inch Eastward:’ How the War in Ukraine Could have been Prevented Decades Ago.
https://scheerpost.com/2022/02/24/not-one-inch-eastward-how-the-war-in-ukraine-could-have-been-prevented-decades-ago/
02/24/22: ScheerPost – Chris Hedges: Chronicle of a War Foretold.
https://scheerpost.com/2022/02/24/hedges-the-chronicle-of-a-war-foretold/
02/15/22 King’s Politics: The Situation in Russia and Ukraine. Professor John Mearsheimier /University of Chicago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcE
02/27/21: Popular Resistance.Org.
https://popularresistance.org/natos-atlantic-council-promoted-ukraines-neo-nazi-azov-battalion/
07/16/18 Vice News: American Scholars Say The Real Threat To The U.S. is Russophobia.
Professor John Mearsheimer and Professor Emeritus/NYU and Princeton) Stephen F. Cohen/ (now deceased) in conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBQikfYyKs
03/10/15 USA Today: Volunteer Ukrainian Forces include Nazis.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/10/ukraine-azov-brigade-nazis-abuses-separatists/24664937/
04/28/14 RT: CrossTalk: Containment 2 Professor John Mearsheimer and Professor Emeritus Stephen F. Cohen (deceased).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9674pRBm6g
03/05/14 Chronology of the Ukrainian Coup (Counterpunch) –
https://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/05/chronology-of-the-ukrainian-coup/
04/28/14 RT: CrossTalk - Professor John Meersheimer and Professor Emeritus (deceased) Stephen F. Cohen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9674pRBm6g
12/13/14 BBC: Ukraine Underplays Role of Far Right in Conflict.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30414955
06/03/15 Salon: We are the propagandists: The real story about how the New York Times and the White House has turned trugh in the Ukraine on its head.
https://www.salon.com/2015/06/03/we_are_the_propagandists_the_real_story_about_how_the_new_york_times_and_the_white_house_has_turned_truth_in_the_ukraine_on_its_head/
07/12/16: CounterPunch: Putin’s Threats to the Baltics a Myth to Promote Nato Unity.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/07/12/putins-threats-to-the-baltics-a-myth-to-promote-nato-unity/
07/13/15 Consortium News – Robert Parry: The Mess that Nuland Made.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/26/robert-parry-the-mess-that-nuland-made/
02/05/97 Project on Defense Alternatives: George Kennan on NATO expansion.
https://comw.org/pda/george-kennan-on-nato-expansion/
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